DIRS.INFO The most relevant business & tech news

"Given the absence of a growth engine, it wouldn't surprise me if the Japanese economy contracted again in the current quarter. The risk of Japan falling into recession cannot be ruled out," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute. "The weak growth and the spectre of slowing inflation could delay the BOJ's exit from negative interest rates," he said. Japan’s economy contracts in the third quarterThe weak reading reflects lacklustre consumption and capital expenditure, dashing policymakers' hopes for a post-pandemic rebound in domestic activity to offset weaker external demand from China and elsewhere. He said better net exports, underpinned by car shipments and tourism, helped lift growth in the second quarter, belying the weakness in domestic demand.

Persons: Androniki, Takeshi Minami, Stefan Angrick, Angrick, Fumio Kishida, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Norinchukin Research, Gross, Moody's, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, China

Real wages adjusted for inflation fell in July for a 16th straight month in a sign households continued to feel the pinch from rising prices, separate data showed, boding ill for consumption. Exports remained solid in April-June with net external demand contributing 1.8% points to GDP growth, unchanged from the preliminary reading. But shipments to China slumped 13.4% in July to mark the 8th straight month of falls. Japan's economy has seen a delayed recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic this year, as rising living costs faltering global demand cloud the outlook. Given such uncertainties, Bank of Japan policymakers have stressed their resolve to keep monetary policy ultra-loose until the recent cost-driven inflation turns into price rises driven by domestic demand and higher wage growth.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Takeshi Minami, Yoshifumi Takemoto, Sam Holmes Organizations: Food, REUTERS, Norinchukin Research, Private, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Soma, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, TOKYO, China, Norinchukin

☆ Japan capex growth weakens with companies wary about China slowdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Capital expenditures climbed 4.5% from a year earlier and fell 1.2% on a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, finance ministry data showed. If that spreads to bigger cities, that will cool demand for China-bound shipments and capex," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute. If Europe and America, which have held firm so far, cave to inflation pressure, that would further sap Japanese corporate appetite for investment." The capex data will be used to calculate revised gross domestic product figures due on Sept. 8. Corporate recurring profits surged 11.6% during the second quarter from the same period a year ago to hit a record 31.6 trillion yen, while corporate revenues rose 5.8%.

Persons: Takeshi Minami, Minami, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Tom Hogue, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: Norinchukin Research, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, China, Japan, U.S, Europe, America

☆ Japan's core inflation eases, bolstering view BOJ will stand pat
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The 3.1% rise in the core consumer price index (CPI), which includes oil products but excludes volatile fresh food prices, matched a median market forecast, following a 3.3% increase in the previous month. The so-called core-core inflation index, which excludes fresh food and energy prices and is closely watched by the BOJ as a better gauge of trend inflation, rose 4.3% year-on-year in July, accelerating from the previous month. Still, analysts say an acceleration in service-led inflation is a positive sign that demand-side inflation, which the BOJ is looking to stoke, may be building. Gabriel Ng, economist at Capital Economics, said the key question is whether services inflation can pick up the baton. Food costs were among the major contributors to the overall inflation due to elevated prices of raw materials.

Persons: Takeshi Minami, Gabriel Ng, Ng, Kazuo Ueda, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Norinchukin Research, Capital Economics, Reuters, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, stoke

☆ Japan exports fall for first time since 2021, stoking concerns about outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Ministry of Finance (MOF) data out Thursday showed Japanese exports fell 0.3% in July year-on-year, compared with a 0.8% decrease expected by economists in a Reuters poll. However, manufacturers are braced for core orders to slide during the current quarter, partly due to the impact from weak offshore demand. Japan exports fall for first time since 2021However, the spectre of a sharper global slowdown and faltering growth in its major market China have raised concerns about the outlook. GLOOMY OUTLOOK TO KEEP BOJ ON HOLD"The Bank of Japan must be aware of downside risks from the global economy. Separate data showed Japan's core machinery orders rose 2.7% in June from the previous month.

Persons: Toru Hanai, Takeshi Minami, Minami, Marcel Thieliant, Tetsushi, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Ministry of Finance, Norinchukin Research, Bank of Japan, Manufacturers, Cabinet, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, China, Europe, America, Asia

☆ Japan wholesale inflation slows again, bolstering case for stimulus
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Yuya Shino/File PhotoSummary Wholesale inflation slowest since March 2021Govt subsidy on utility bills weighs on wholesale pricesEasing inflation may keep BOJ stimulus intact for nowTOKYO, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Japan's wholesale inflation eased for a seventh month in July as pressure from high global commodity prices eased, a development economists say is likely to encourage the central bank to keep its monetary stimulus in place. It was the slowest wholesale inflation since March 2021 when prices turned positive to mark 1.0% growth, Bank of Japan (BOJ) data showed. After peaking at 10.6% in December, wholesale inflation has decelerated for seven months in a row. On the month, wholesale prices rose 0.1%, up for the first time in three months. As domestic corporate goods prices continue to slow, consumer prices will also slow from autumn," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at the Norinchukin Research Institute.

Persons: Yuya, Takeshi Minami, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Sam Holmes, Shron Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Norinchukin Research, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO

☆ Japan exports underwhelm in June, global weakness drags on economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Exports were led by U.S.-bound shipments of cars and mining machinery, while China-bound shipments of steel, chips and nonferrous metal caused a double-digit decline in overall exports to China. "Going forward, it could be hard for Japan to maintain a trade surplus in a stable manner unless exports regain strength and global commodity prices keep import costs low." The overall trade numbers produced a trade surplus of 43 billion yen ($308.11 million), confounding the median estimate for a 90.1 billion yen deficit. U.S.-bound shipments, Japan's major ally, rose 11.7% year-on-year in June, led by shipments of cars, construction and mining machinery, following a 9.4% rise in the previous month. ($1 = 139.5600 yen)Reporting by Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Stephen CoatesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Takeshi Minami, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Shri Navaratnam, Stephen Coates Organizations: Ministry of Finance, U.S, Norinchukin Research, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan, China, .

However, there is uncertainty about how long households can weather price hikes and generate inflation driven more by demand, which holds the key to whether BOJ's 2% target can be achieved in a sustainable manner, analysts say. The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 3.2% in June from a year earlier, accelerating from a 3.1% gain in May. While companies offered wage hikes unseen in three decades this year, inflation-adjusted real pay continues to fall in a sign of pain consumers are feeling from the wave of price hikes. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has repeatedly said the BOJ will maintain ultra-loose policy until stronger wage growth keeps inflation sustainably around its 2% target. "The BOJ may revise up its inflation forecast but probably keep policy steady in July," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

Persons: Yoshiki Shinke, Teikoku Databank, Kazuo Ueda, Ryozo Himino, Takeshi Minami, Takahiko Wada, Leika, Satoshi Sugiyama, Kantaro, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Dai, Research, Reuters, BOJ, Norinchukin Research, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, TOKYO

Ministry of Finance data showed on Thursday that exports rose 0.6% year-on-year in May, for the 27th straight month of rises, led by 66% growth in car shipments. Reuters GraphicsThis year, domestic demand may temporarily outpace slumping exports as a key driver of growth, said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute. Separate government machinery orders data, also released Thursday, underlined the struggles faced by manufacturers though the overall numbers suggested the services sector is providing some cushion to the economy. U.S.-bound exports, another key market for Japanese exports, grew 9.4% in the year to May on double-digit gain in car shipment. "For the outlook of Japanese exports, the U.S. Fed's rate-hike pause is a positive news that will further vitalise American private consumption", said Kazuma Kishikawa, economist at Daiwa Institute of Research.

Persons: Darren Tay, Takeshi Minami, Kazuma Kishikawa, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Riddhima Talwani, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Ministry of Finance, Capital Economics, Reuters, Norinchukin Research, Bank of Japan, Daiwa Institute of Research, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, China, U.S

☆ Japan's export growth hits two-year low on weak China demand
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

It also marked the weakest gain since February 2021 when exports declined 4.5%. Exports have expanded every month since the February 2021 decline, helped in part by a weaker yen that makes Japanese products competitive. "The global economy will slow further in the latter half of this year, so you cannot count on either domestic or external demand, leaving Japan's economy in a soft patch." By destination, Japanese exports to China, the country's largest trading partner, dropped 2.9% in April year-on-year, dragged by declines in cars, car parts and steel shipments. Likewise, Japan's shipments to Asia fell 6.3% year-on-year in April, down for a fourth straight month.

☆ Japan's wholesale inflation slows, may ease pressure on BOJ
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The data may diminish market expectations that broadening inflationary pressure will prod the Bank of Japan to seek an early exit from ultra-low interest rates. "Having said that, we'll likely see price growth slow as import-driven inflationary pressure is already subsiding." Analysts are closely watching moves in wholesale prices, considered a leading indicator of consumer price trends, for clues on whether consumer inflation will heighten enough for the BOJ to phase out its massive stimulus. Japan's core consumer inflation hit 3.1% in March and an index excluding fuel costs rose at the fastest annual pace in four decades in a sign of broadening price pressure. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has said the central bank will keep monetary policy ultra-loose unless the recent rise in consumer inflation is driven more by robust domestic demand, and accompanied by higher wage growth.

☆ Japan March export growth slows, annual trade deficit widens to record
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Import growth outpaced exports in March, due to the hefty cost of coal, crude and oil products, helping bring the annual trade deficit in the world's third-biggest economy to a record 21.7 trillion yen ($161 billion). It exceeded the previous record of 13.7 trillion yen in fiscal 2013. Analysts say Japan's trade deficit will persist for the time being as exports weaken. "Effects of the fully-fledged monetary tightening in the West since last summer will play out in their economies, causing Japan's exports to turn downward going forward." By region, exports to the United States grew 9.4% in the year to March, slowing from the 14.9% seen in the previous month.

The service-sector mood, by contrast, recovered as easing border controls and an end to COVID-19 curbs heightened hopes for a rebound in tourism and consumption, the Bank of Japan's tankan survey showed. Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, expects external factors, such as the fallout from U.S. and European monetary tightening, to weigh on Japan's exports and business sentiment. "Given the fragile nature of Japan's recovery, the BOJ is not in a situation where it can normalise monetary policy anytime soon," he said. Big firms plan to raise capital expenditure by 3.2% in the fiscal year that began in April, less than market forecasts for a 4.9% gain, the tankan showed. Reporting by Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Japan's business mood sours to 2-year low as global slowdown bites, Tankan survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Japan's business sentiment soured in January-March to hit the worst level in more than two years, the closely-watched tankan survey showed on April 3, 2023. Akio Kon | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesJapan's business sentiment soured in January-March to hit the worst level in more than two years, a closely-watched central bank survey showed on Monday, as slowing global growth clouds the outlook for the export-reliant economy. The service-sector mood, by contrast, recovered as easing border controls and an end to Covid-19 curbs heightened hopes for a rebound in tourism and consumption, the Bank of Japan's tankan survey showed. It was the fifth straight quarter of deterioration and the worst level hit since December 2020. Given the fragile nature of Japan's recovery, the BOJ is not in a situation where it can normalize monetary policy anytime soon.

The world's third-biggest economy has struggled to make a solid post-COVID recovery, undermined by lacklustre household consumption and a global slowdown. Slowing shipments to China, which fell for a third straight month, have also shattered policymakers' hopes for a quick rebound from the pandemic doldrums. Exports to China, Japan's largest trading partner fell 10.9% year-on-year in February, registering a second straight month of double-digit decline, as demand weakened for cars, auto parts and display-making equipment. Japan has now posted a trade deficit for 19 straight months. "Chances are 50-50 that Japan may slide into recession," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

[1/3] FILE PHOTO-A woman in a traditional costume makes her way at a shopping district in Tokyo, Japan November 15, 2022. "From a negative growth in July-September, the rebound isn't very impressive," said Toru Suehiro, chief economist at Daiwa Securities. But it's difficult to project a strong recovery partly due to pressure from rising inflation," he said. RECESSION RISKSFor the full year, the economy expanded 1.1% compared with a 2.1% increase in 2021, the data showed. Economy minister Shigeyuki Goto told reporters the economy was on course for a recovery as the pandemic's impact fades.

Ueda, a 71-year-old former Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy board member, will succeed incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda, whose second, five-year term ends on April 8, according to documents presented to parliament on Tuesday. Analysts expect Ueda, who had warned of the dangers of premature interest rate hikes in the past, to hold off on tightening monetary policy. "Ueda is likely to focus on theory and empirical analysis in guiding monetary policy," said Naomi Muguruma, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. Upon parliament's approval, Ueda will chair his first BOJ policy meeting on April 27-28. A soft-spoken academic with a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Ueda is seen as a pragmatist who can adjust his views on monetary policy flexibly.

☆ Japan's wholesale inflation stays elevated, keeps BOJ under pressure
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Japan's core consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in April from a year earlier, government data showed on May 29, keeping inflation distant from the central bank's 2 percent target. The increase in the corporate goods price index (CGPI), which measures the price companies charge each other for their goods and services, largely met a median market forecast for a 9.6% gain. The index, at 119.8, matched a record high hit in December, Bank of Japan (BOJ) data showed. "Firms have yet to fully pass on past rises in input costs, which is keeping inflationary pressure high," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute. "We expect the pace of inflation to gradually slow in the latter half of fiscal 2023," he told parliament.

☆ Japan's sharp wholesale price rise heaps pressure on BOJ's ultra-easy policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The 10.2% year-on-year rise in the corporate goods price index (CGPI), which measures the price companies charge each other for their goods and services, exceeded a median market forecast for a 9.5% gain, Bank of Japan data showed. "While inflationary pressure from imports is easing, firms are still passing on rising input costs at home," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute. "But such price pressure will gradually weaken with commodity inflation peaking out, and major economies likely to stagnate in the first half of this year," he said. For 2022, wholesale prices rose 9.7% on average from the previous year, hitting a record high since comparable data became available in 1981. Data due out on Friday is expected to show Japan's core consumer prices rose 4.0% in December, double the BOJ's 2% target and a fresh 41-year-high, in a sign of rising living costs for households, according to a Reuters poll.

☆ Tokyo core CPI seen up 3.8% in December, new 40-year-high
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The core consumer price index (CPI) in Tokyo, a leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends, was expected to have climbed 3.8% in December from a year earlier on widening retail price rises, according to the median estimate of 16 economists. The central bank jolted the market last month with a surprise tweak to its long-term yield cap, allowing rates to rise more. Household spending likely dropped 0.5% in November from the previous month, while it was forecast to have risen 0.5% from the same month a year earlier, according to the poll. The government will release the Tokyo CPI data and household spending data on Jan. 10 at 8:30 a.m. (Jan. 9, 2330 GMT). The current account data is due on Jan. 12 at 8:50 a.m. (Jan. 11, 2350 GMT).

☆ Japan’s consumer inflation hits fresh 40-year high
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Japan’s core consumer inflation hit a fresh four-decade high as companies continued to pass on rising costs to households, data showed, a sign price hikes were broadening and could keep the central bank under pressure to whittle down massive stimulus. Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes energy costs, rose 3.7% in November from a year earlier, data showed Friday, matching market forecasts and perking up from a 3.6% gain in October. “We’ll likely see a rush in price hikes next year that could be more intense than this year,” as companies face rising labor and distribution costs, Teikoku Data Bank said. We can’t rule out the chance of a big overshoot in inflation,” one member was quoted as saying in the October minutes. The CPI data will likely be among key factors the BOJ will scrutinize when it produces fresh quarterly inflation forecasts at a two-day policy meeting ending on January 18.

☆ Japan's consumer inflation hits fresh 40-year high, eyes on BOJ policy
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Japan's core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes energy costs, rose 3.7% in November from a year earlier, data showed on Friday, matching market forecasts and perking up from a 3.6% gain in October. Reuters GraphicsAside from utility bills, prices rose for a broad range of goods from fried chicken, smartphones to air conditioners, in a sign of mounting inflationary pressure, the data showed. But an index stripping away such one-off factors may remain elevated and keep pressure on the BOJ to remain vigilant to the chance of a demand-driven rise in inflation. "We'll likely see a rush in price hikes next year that could be more intense than this year," as companies face rising labour and distribution costs, Teikoku Data Bank said. The CPI data will likely be among key factors the BOJ will scrutinise when it produces fresh quarterly inflation forecasts at a two-day policy meeting ending on Jan. 18.

☆ Bank of Japan makes surprise policy tweak
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

ATUSHI TAKEDA, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ITOCHU ECONOMIC RESEARCH, TOKYO:"Today's move reflects the BOJ's determination not to alter its yield cure control policy. CAROL KONG, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA, SYDNEY:"I think the move was certainly unexpected, to say the least. MOH SIONG SIM, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, BANK OF SINGAPORE:"They've widened the band, and I guess that came earlier than expected. CHRISTOPHER WONG, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, OCBC, SINGAPORE:"The timing of the policy tweak is a surprise, though we have been expecting the move to come in 2Q 2023. "The tweak may seem modest but is significant for a central bank that has held dovish for a long time.

☆ Japan upgrades Q3 GDP as global recession, COVID risks linger
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Japan's economy unexpectedly shrank in the third quarter as global recession risks, China's faltering economy, a weak yen and higher import costs hurt consumption and businesses. However, others are bracing for the global economy to tip into a recession next year, dealing a sharp blow to trade-reliant Asian exporters such as Japan. Before annualising, third-quarter GDP was down 0.2% on the previous quarter, compared with the initial contraction estimate of 0.3%. Among key sectors, private consumption, which makes up more than half of Japan's GDP, helped drive growth, though it was revised down. However, a weak yen and hefty import bills, which boost the cost of living, more than offset GDP growth contributors.

For October-December, (Japan's) production will likely be almost flat or slightly decrease from the previous quarter," said Shumpei Fujita, economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting, pointing to the global economic slowdown as a culprit. Factory output fell 2.6% in October from a month earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis, government data showed on Wednesday. Production machinery output slipped 5.4%, taking a hit from soft demand for equipment to make semiconductors and flat-panel displays. While output of compact cars for the domestic market grew, production and shipment of export-oriented larger vehicles was down due to chip shortages, the METI official said. The impact of China's recent lockdown remains unclear, the METI official said, adding the spill-over effects for Japanese manufacturers may only appear in November or December statistics.

Search resuls for: "Norinchukin Research"

25 mentions found